I'm talking of course about the Scottish Independence referendum, probably the one and only time I'll do politics on this blog. Just to be clear I live in England but was one of the minority of English people rooting for Scotland to vote yes. According to the political compass I'm a left libertarian, which seems about right. I'm not currently a member of any political party. Although if I did join one it would be the Green Party. So before reading on you know where I stand. Other opinions are of course available.
It's been fascinating to watch a popular grass roots campaign engage tens of thousands of people who have never been active in politics before. Who belong to no political party seize the opportunity to shape their own destiny. A movement of ordinary people come so close to defeating the combined might of the British establishment and traditional media. For one exciting, exhilarating, moment it looked like we were going to have a Scottish Autumn. A demand for something better than the failed policies of unaccountable politicians in Westminster. Who have left millions of people across the United Kingdom (not just Scotland) disillusioned, disenfranchised, powerless and voiceless. People who see no point in voting for a ruling elite totally out of touch with reality of the lives of ordinary people.
In the end it seemed what's known as the Thatcher effect was at work in the opinion polls. For those who don't know, back in the 1980's opinion polls consistently underestimated the support for Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party. Pollsters concluded that people were ashamed to admit publicly to voting for what many considered to be socially damaging and divisive polices but in the privacy of the voting booth acted out of selfish self-interest. The perceived benefits to them as an individual outweighing the negative social consequences. There were certainly more no voters than some polls suggested and the polls indicate no voters were more reluctant to disclose their voting intentions.
Perhaps the most interesting thing is the where and why of the Yes and No votes. The younger generation voted decisively for independence, the older generation for the union. The three key drivers for yes voters were disaffection with Westminster (74%), the future of the NHS (54%) and tax and public spending (33%). No voters were driven by the issue of keeping the pound (57%), pensions (37%) and the NHS (35%). A quarter (25%) of no voters also believed that Scotland would gain greater powers even if they voted no.
The yes vote was not an anti-English vote, but an anti-Westminster, anti-austerity vote from a country where 8.5% of the UK's population contribute 9.5% of the UK's taxes and account for 8.2% of public spending. But are consistently portrayed in the English media as scroungers whose health and education services have been unfairly protected from the cuts south of the boarder.
Clearly an independent Scotland would not have been a socialist (or any other kind) of utopia. Winning your freedom is the 'easy' part it's what you do with it afterwards that counts. But a free and independent Scotland north of the boarder, with a progressive, slightly left of centre government, a sovereign wealth fund and a politically engaged population committed to building a freer, fairer, society would have given Westminster nightmares. After all no one wants the threat of a good example on your doorstep showing that another way is possible.
It also beyond doubt that Scotland will pay a heavy price for having the impertinence to ask the question irrespective of the result. While the additional powers promised at the eleventh hour to secure the no vote remain uncertain there's now a clear move to politically castrate Scotland's Westminster MP's with 'English votes for English laws' (The closest were likely to come to devolution in England). Inevitably leading to further marginalisation of Scotland within the union.
It's also clear that what little protection is afforded to Scotland by the Barnet formula (The mechanism used to set the amounts of public expenditure allocated to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) is going to be removed. Reducing funding for the public services their devolved parliament has so far managed to defend to the same parlous state as England's. In return for which they will be granted some tax raising powers.
In short it's a master class by the British ruling class in how to turn a political crisis to your advantage. Publicly they will talk of the independence vote as wake-up call and talk about the need to revitalise and reinvent the union for the 21st Century. In reality more power will be concentrated in even fewer hands at Westminster. Scotland's devolved powers diluted by spending cuts, it's Westminster MP's render powerless. While its oil and gas wealth continues to be siphoned off into the City of London.
The big unknown in all this is how the 1.6 million people who voted for independence will react. Will they become disillusion and disengaged from the political process or continue to agitate for something better than the three Westminster parties have so far managed to offer?
In the short term at least the 'United' Kingdom is like to remain one of the least democratic democracies. The democracy with the largest (unelected) second chamber in the world and one of only two where unelected clerics have a say in setting government policy (Iran being the other). Saddled with a ridiculous first-past-the post voting system where a 100,000 votes in a handful of marginal seats will decide who governs a nation of over 60 million people and voter turnout will continue to fall.
I'll be back with a non-political blog next week and oh yes I nearly forgot if you got this far I should be releasing the revised edition of Rebels in the coming week.